Posted by
Philly Joe on Tuesday, September 12, 2006 10:50:58 AM
I've read from time to time that some terror groups have plans that extend well into the future. Often the author has great admiration and seems to think that if someone has a plan, all he has to do is wait for events to play right into his hands. I think it is just as likely they will hold onto their plan long after they should have realized events are going in an entirely different direction. Thus, the plan will make them less likely to succeed. The longer the plan extends into the future, the more it is probable it will inhibit success. Make a plan to do something in 2016 and try to figure out every change that will take place between now and then that would affect the plan. Store up poison gas to be used on troops attacking your country, by then soldiers might be replaced by robots.
The point is I think these plans are overrated. Events may play into the hands of some long range planner, but more likely success will fall to those who are capable of adapting quickly. The later is a better description of us than them.
Joe